Dude, Where's My Oil?

Via Kevin Drum, Business Week says they've got the goods on Saudi oil reserves and there's not as much goo down there as the Saudis want us to believe:

The detailed document, obtained from a person with access to Saudi oil officials, suggests that Saudi Aramco will be limited to sustained production of just 12 million barrels a day in 2010, and will be able to maintain that volume only for short, temporary periods such as emergencies. Then it will scale back to a sustainable production level of about 10.4 million barrels a day, according to the data.

Now I imagine there's some uncertainty about this and other documents that back up the Saudis' official line that they can go up to 15 million barrels. But this reporting is hardly the first slice of evidence to suggest the Saudis are exaggerating and it indicates that we should really expect the price of oil to keep going up over the long haul.