We're getting into Dukakis-Bush'-88 territory here: the Los Angeles Times / Bloomberg survey out today finds that Barack Obama wins in a landslide if Ralph Nader and Bob Barr make it on the ballot -- 48% to 33%. The Times polled more than 1,100 registered voters -- and RVs are really the best universe at this point.
The Times's explanation for Obama's rise is simple: the economy is our top issue, and we trust Barack Obama to fix it.
There are more conservatives than liberals, but nearly 80% of libs say they'd vote for Obama; 58% of conservatives say they'd vote for McCain. The party identification gap is huge: Democrats + 15; and only 29% of respondents had a positive view of the GOP. (51% had a positive view of the Democratic Party.)
It's a Democratic year," Pinkus said. "This election is the Democrats' to lose."
Sounds about right.
(Reader CH notes: "The major difference between '88 and '08 is that the outgoing Republican president in '88 was nowhere near a 23% approval rating.")