Bounce-obsessives can calm themselves: Quinnipiac's out with surveys of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania this morning showing Obama gains in each state as compared to the last time Q-PAC polled. The sample sizes are huge -- more than 1,400 likely votes in each state, although I'm a little wary of likely voter samples at this stage. No matter:
Florida: Obama: 47, McCain 43
Ohio: Obama 48, McCain 42
Pennsylvania: Obama 52, McCain 40
The crosstabs: Obama's leading among white voters in PA, and his multi-ethnic coalition puts him over the top elsewhere. He leads by double digits about women everywhere; men are split evenly. The economy is the major issue in each state; President Bush's approval rating is highest (27%) in Florida.
Obama's getting the votes of 13% of '04 Bush voters in Florida and Ohio, and 19% in Pennsylvania. McCain gets the support of 24% of Clinton voters in PA and roughly equivalent percentages in OH and FL. So, from O's perspective, maybe it doesn't really matter that a quarter of Clinton Democrats turned Red.
Some other key findings after the jump.
More QPAC findings:
By almost 2 - 1 margins in each state, voters say going to war in Iraq was wrong. But they split between Obama's plan to withdraw U.S. troops under a fixed timetable and McCain's plan to keep troops there until the situation stabilizes and then withdraw without a set schedule.
Florida women likely voters back Obama 50 - 40 percent, while men go 47 percent for McCain and 44 percent for Obama. White voters back McCain 50 - 40 percent while black voters back Obama 95 - 4 percent. Obama leads 57 -35 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old; he splits 48 - 46 percent with McCain among voters 35 to 54, and 44 - 46 percent with voters over 55.
Obama leads 51 - 39 percent among Ohio women likely voters, while men go 46 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama. White voters also are narrowly divided with 47 percent for McCain and 44 percent for Obama, but Obama commands black voters 90 - 6 percent. The Democrat also leads 58 - 36 percent among voters 18 to 34 and 49 - 42 percent among voters 35 to 54, while McCain has the 47 - 43 percent edge among voters over 55.
Obama tops McCain 57 - 34 percent with women as men go 47 percent for McCain to 45 percent for Obama. Obama leads 61 - 33 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, 51 - 41 percent among voters 35 to 54 and 48 - 43 percent with voters over 55. The Democrat inches ahead 47 - 44 percent among white voters and leads among black voters 95 - 1 percent.
Obama gets a 54 - 25 percent favorability, to 43 - 33 percent for McCain.