Lots of feedback to the first Atlantic Election Map. The state most in dispute: Iowa. Many Republicans believe that a combination of depressed evangelical turnout and Obama's extremely built out organization in the state give Obama a decisive edge, and that the state should really be a tilt Obama. Michigan: Should it be a tossup? Obama's decision to take his name off the ballot left Democrats there cold, Romney could help McCain with Republicans, the unions are in disarray, and the hope is that by the election, Gov. Granholm (D) is a drag on the ticket.
Democrats want me to push Texas and North Carolina out of the McCain solid column into the tilt McCain column. I'm not convinced just yet. If the Senate races in those states are truly competitive -- something we won't really know for a few months -- then I'd be more inclined to move them. I know that Scott Rasmussen's snapshot polls have shown a fairly volatile political climate in both states, and I would not at all discount the priming effect of the Democratic primaries, but I remain, at this point anyway, unpersuaded.
Finally, one conservative allocates all the tilters on my map:
"McCain wins: Ohio, New Mexico, and steals New Hampshire.
Obama wins: Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Colorado
Result: 269 EV for McCain, 269 EV for Obama
Nancy and co then elect Obama in the most divisive presidential election ever."