The 300 Map

The folks at VoteBoth are touting Chris Bowers's map merging the electoral maps of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama; in Bowers's estimation, a joint ticket gets to 300 electoral votes lickety-split. A "rout" is what Sam Arora and Adam Parkhomenko predict.

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Logically, this doesn't work so crisply. Why assume that a joint ticket would benefit the Democrats? Wouldn't the weaknesses which produce the negative results in the marginal states be as likely to push votes to McCain as their strengths would push votes to Clinton? Think of, as an extreme example, West Virginia, where 50,000 Democrats voted for Hillary Clinton because Barack Obama was black. Wouldn't their estimation of Clinton decrease if she were to choose a black guy? Would putting Hillary Clinton on HIS ticket make them more comfortable? Perhaps only 40,000 of those Democrats would vote for a Clinton-Obama ticket. Perhaps 20,000 would vote for an Obama-Clinton ticket. Maybe 2,000 vote for McCain. Maybe the rest stay home. As a thought experiment, it works as well as assuming that these 50,000 Democrats would vote for a joint ticket.

The point is: a joint ticket may be beneficial on balance to Democrats, or it may not.

Just asking: how long until the VoteBoth effort receives an unofficial/official sanction from the Clinton campaign? That is -- how long until, say, Doug Band or Steve Richetti calls up one of the two gentlemen and tells them that, say, "The President and Hillary really appreciate what you're doing." Suddenly, the same message would be sent to fundraisers, and VoteBoth would raise a million overnight...