The demographics are fairly predictable, but Pew's sample included only 88 voters between the ages of 18 and 29 -- less than 8 percent of the sample. In 2004, 17% of voters were between the ages of 18 and 29, and it's reasonable to assume that the figure will be, at bottom, 20%. Factoring my turnout assumption in, Obama's margin over McCain in the poll is about 6 percentage points, not three.
Other highlights from the poll: Obama is doing worse among evangelicals and better among folks with college degrees... all not surprising.
