Marriage Trendlines

Kevin Drum looks at the trendlines in growing support for gay rights and concludes that a gay marriage referendum in California is likely to be a close-run thing. But of course whatever happens this November, this is essentially a fight the right has already lost. Individuals' views are evolving in a more pro-equality direction, but perhaps more importantly pure cohort replacement effects doom the conservative position on gay rights questions with equality enjoying overwhelming support among younger Americans.

And then of course there's the Ellen DeGeneres factor, as these days an openly lesbian woman can regularly attract a large audience of very middlebrow people and announce her engagement to a cheering studio audience.