Undecideds And Clinton
Pollster.com's Mark Blumenthal notices that the correlation between polls with smaller pools of undecided voters and larger Clinton margins has largely "disappeared" in the final round of surveys. Since the surveys disagree about the size and direction of Clinton's lead, it's unlikely that these undecideds have allocated themselves to Clinton or Obama. Does the composition of the undecideds favor Clinton?
".... the remaining undecided may still conceal a disproportionate share of Clinton voters, but hard evidence of that proposition is weak. Chuck Todd noticed that undecided voters in the MSNBC/Mason-Dixon survey were higher in subgroups where Clinton does better (among gun owners and outside of the Pittsburgh and Philadelphia media markets). Looking back at theTime/SRBI survey conducted in early April, Charles Franklin saw evidence that undecideds seem "somewhat more likely to support Clinton." However, as I look at the pattern of undecideds in the most recent SurveyUSA and Quinnipiac surveys, I see no clear pattern in the undecided either by region or demographic subgroups. On the Quinnipiac survey, for example, the percentage of undecided voters is roughly same among African Americans (6%) and white voters without a college education (5%)."