Drudge And The Exits

Some has leaked to Matt Drudge the first of three waves of exit poll numbers, and even though the first wave of numbers have a margin of error so as to render useful any real attempt to project a victory or a margin of victory, judging by the e-mails I'm getting, the entire political world seems to want to accept them as fact anyway. We humans don't have much in the way of a probability filter, so I don't really blame them. But before you begin to book your tickets to Indiana, just relax for a few more hours.

Not for nothing, I'd characterize the mood of the Clinton campaign as cautiously optimistic, and that of the Obama campaign as optimistically resigned.

NB: Mark Blumenthal of Pollster.com notes that leaked exit polls "favored" disproportionately Obama in 18 of 20 contests so far.