Some New Projections: Scenario Gertrude

Allocating (generously), 60 percent of the remaining superdelegates to Clinton and running the following projections through Forbes's delegate calculator, I've come up, quite unexpectedly, with a 1,976 to 1,976 delegate tie. I'll call this scenario "Gertrude."


If I change the superdelegate allocation to 60% to 40% in the favor of Obama, he wins the nomination by 26 delegates.

If the superdelegates split down the middle -- there are roundabout 352 of them, in Forbes's estimation -- Obama is 14 votes short.

So you see why the math still favors Obama.

Were Clinton to add, say, 30 extra delegates and hundreds of thousands of net popular votes from revoting in Michigan and Florida -- well -- even under a split superdelegate scenario, she would have a much better case to make that the nomination is essentially tied and that the superdelegates and even the pledged delegates are lobbyable.