Obama, Clinton, McCain, And The General

Some points to start the day:

** The gap between Democratic and Republican party identification is larger than at any point since the Reagan administration, and, at that time, the gap favored the Republicans.

** Obama's advantages at the national level may be transient or illusory in the general election and magnified by Democratic advantages in larger states. Obama is losing white, working class voters to John McCain in critical states, and his advantage in the newer purple edge states like Virginia and Colorado are fairly transferable to other Democrats.

** The better Hillary Clinton does, the better she'll do in polls versus John McCain in the general election. It's true that she has a ceiling of about 52%, but her floor is much more solid than Obama's based on her demographic coalition, which is more traditionally Democratic than his. Note the new Washington Post / ABC News poll and the new Survey USA poll.