Don't Forget About The UADs: The Orange Scenario

Here's what I'm calling scenario Orange:


The upshot is that among UADs whose affiliation is locked in (those selected by state conventions and delegations that have already been elected) Obama leads 23-7. Split the UADs from the other states that have already voted by assuming that the UADs will go to the winner of the popular vote, and they split 38-24 for Obama (although that's an unwarranted assumption).

So what we're looking at is a substantial block of 76 delegates who're almost certain to deliver a double-digit margin for Obama. And I haven't seen them pop up in anyone's calculations of the task ahead for Clinton. These folks aren't going to be susceptible to persuasion - they're being run as proxies for the candidates in hotly contested battles, and have been carefully vetted for loyalty.

If Obama's pledged delegate lead stands at 156 this morning (as per his website) and Clinton's superdelegate lead at 43 (as per DemConWatch) and the UAD margin at 16 (as per my math), then she's trailing by 132 - and there are only 280 undecided superdelegates. Freeze those margins where they are, and Clinton needs to carry them 209-71.