Democrats Defecting

Gallup and Pew have more data out today about the Democrats most likely to defect to John McCain in the fall.


Fascinating: the two Clinton groups most likely to flip if Obama is the nominee are independents who lean to Democrats and conservative Democrats -- nearly 40% of them would vote for McCain. Also: 30% of men and 30% of Dems with high school diplomas or less. And 29% of Latinos.

The two Obama groups most likely to flip: independents who lean to Democrats and conservative Democrats. But assuming an average defection rate of 28%, as Gallup does, only the Clinton-to-McCain defections are statistically significant.

BTW: African Americans do not seem to desert Obama if Clinton is the nominee. As Gallup notes, though:

The data do not address the issue of motivation or turnout, which could be lower among blacks if Obama is not the nominee, nor do the data address the implications of the precise way in which Clinton might win the nomination. If Clinton were to win by the vote of superdelegates, for example, the blowback from black Obama supporters might be greater than if she were to win by gaining the highest percentage of the popular vote cast in primaries and caucuses.