1. The weather. As I type, the Weather Channel says it's 3 degrees and feels like -12.

2. The Flake Rate: will it be higher among seniors than among millennials?

3. Madison: Will Madison provide the margin of victory for Obama? Remember: Wisconsin allows same-day registration.

4. Working class women. The suburbs of Milwaukee. Sheboygan. Green Bay.

If Hillary Clinton beats expectations, I'll credit the socioeconomic status cleavages among Democrats, but look for Obama's campaign to say that her "negative" direct mail is responsible. Here are two representative screen grabs:

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