Wouldn't say that Maine was an upset per se, but I did suspect that it would be closer than it turned out to be.
TO: Interested Parties
FR: David Plouffe
RE: Upset in Maine Caps Off Weekend Sweep
DA: February 10, 2008
Read the memo after the jump.
By the numbers:
Projected pledged delegates won in Maine: Obama – 15; Clinton – 9
Obama’s current lead over Clinton: 84 pledged delegates (a total that increased 57 this weekend)
Pledged delegates: Obama – 1030; Clinton – 946 (the increase is reflected by gains in Maine and totals that were revised upward from yesterday’s results – see chart below)
States won: Obama – 20; Clinton – 11
Primaries won: Obama – 9; Clinton – 9 (With New Mexico still in question)
Caucuses won: Obama 11; Clinton – 2
Today, Obama won an upset victory in Maine, a state where internal and external polls had Clinton leading in the days leading up to the caucuses. Obama is projected to win 15 delegates to Clinton’s 9, capping off an Obama sweep of this weekend’s contests.
Barack Obama has won nearly twice as many states as Hillary Clinton. He won a Red State, Purple State, and Blue States this weekend – showing he has broad national appeal and can win in every corner of this country. Obama has now won 20 contests to Clinton’s 11; he’s won a larger share of the popular vote; and he’s projected to more than triple his current pledged delegate lead since Super Tuesday from 27 pledged delegates to 84, a net gain of 57 pledged delegates.
This weekend’s net gain of 57 pledged delegates represents more than the 42 delegate net gain that Clinton won in Massachusetts, New Jersey, Tennessee and Arizona – combined.
While Obama’s victories demonstrate his broad national appeal, he still faces an uphill battle in every upcoming contest because the Clintons are far better known and have a political machine that’s been honed over two decades. But the more voters get to know Obama and his message of change, the more they support him, which bodes well for the upcoming primaries.
Obama’s victories reflect what a recent Time poll confirmed the other day – that he is the candidate best suited to win Independents, play well in Red States, and beat John McCain in November. As the nominee, Obama will also help down-ballot Democrats get elected to Congress across the country, especially in those Red States where Democrats haven’t fared well for decades. So Obama won’t just win an election, he’ll win a new majority for change, so we can finally solve the problems we’ve been talking about for decades.