A Response On Superdelegates

There have been lots of comments about reader Chuck Thies's superdelegate scenario.

Here's one additional comment that represents most of them from reader/Obama fan Ryan C.:

It's premised on a false assumption: that superdelegates will make their choice without regard to the overall state of the pledged delegate race.

Given that roughly 58% of the superdelegates are 'undecided' they clearly are watching the race. See also this:


Super Delegates. Most super delegates are, in fact, waiting to see which way the wind blows before solidifying their endorsements. As long as there is a candidate with a clear edge in both pledged delegates and voter support during the nomination contests, in all likelihood the super delegates will back that candidate. While, as both pledged delegate totals and dueling popularity metrics show, we have not arrived at that point, odds are that we will arrive at that point by June 4th, the day after the nominating contests come to an end. It does not have to be a large advantage, just as long as it is a clear advantage

To the point: If Obama builds up a lead of 100 delegates between now and March 4th, and then manages a practical tie or even wins either OH or TX, they'll come down on his side.