Here's what Secretary of State Bill Gardner projects:

500,000 voters.

90,000 independents choose Obama.

60,000 independents choose McCain.

260,000 votes for Democrats

240,000 votes for Republicans

So -- about 25% of the Republican primary vote will be comprised of independents.

And 33% of the Democratic primary vote will be comprised of independents.

The road forward for John McCain is clear: run close to even among Republicans and get the majority of independents.

A 500,000 project splits the difference between the last presidential electon (674K) and the last gubernatorial election (417K).

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