The Un-Decisiveness of Florida


There's a growing conventional wisdom that tonight's Florida matchup between John McCain and Mitt Romney will be decisive. That may be true, but it's worth noting how silly it is. Assuming the jumble of polls pictured above is somewhat accurate, the final tally between McCain and Romney will be very close. Meanwhile, a non-trivial number of people are going to vote for Mike Huckabee or Rudy Giuliani. And the "winner" of Florida is going to secure a plurality that falls far short of a majority. If it winds up going 31/30/15/13 McCain/Romney/Huckabee/Rudy as InsiderAdvantage has it, there seems to me to be every reason for Mitt to soldier on. Similarly, if ARG's right and it comes down 32/34/12/11 there's every reason for McCain to keep running strong.