Steve Mitchell's final Michigan tracking poll shows Mitt Romney with 36%, John McCain with 29% and Mike Huckabee with 12%.

The Romney campaign believes that if the percentage of independents or Democrats who vote in the Republican primary is kept below 20%, they've got a good shot.

They are wary, though, of predicting what would happen if Romney were to fall to McCain. Reporters can write "Lazarus Rises" just so many times, and even though the media in Michigan has been very good to Romney, the national press is not inclined to give him a third shot if he earns yet another silver.

New Hampshire and Michigan, in that order, are Romney's best states. Michigan's perhaps the only state where Romney can run what amounts to a gubernatorial message campaign. McCain's heavy emphasis on national issues and national security plans better almost everywhere else.

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