Fifteen Years 'Till His Liver Exploded

Michael Barone observes that "Every 16 years--in 1976, 1992 and now in 2008--American voters have seemed less interested in experience and credentials and more interested in a new face unconnected to the current political establishment" and then goes on to wonder "What can explain this 16-year itch?"

I'll endorse the Nyhan hypothesis: it's random chance. This is an extreme example, but a strikingly large quantity of political journalism seems focused on this kind of silly analytical error.