Clinton versus McCain

Kevin Drum tries to cheer me up about the prospects of a Clinton/McCain matchup. Like most of the most convincing pro-Clinton commentary out there, it seems to me to succeed by taking on a weak charge. I know a certain number of people who think McCain is a shoo-in against Clinton. As Drum says, those people are wrong. That said, I think McCain is pretty clearly a stronger nominee than the main alternatives on the Republican side. And, again, Clinton looks like a weaker nominee than the alternatives.

In the wake of the John Kerry Fiasco people have tended to deprecate the "electability" test. And, I think, rightly so. The most important determinant of election outcomes is the broad national fundamentals. Beyond that, the most important thing is running a solid campaign. That means there's intrinsically a lot of uncertainty and it makes sense to not put a ton of weight on this factor. That said, all the available evidence points to there being more people with friendly feelings toward Obama than there are with friendly feelings toward Hillary.