The National Journal Political Futures Market: An Update


For the Democratic nomination, Hillary Clinton is trading at 56.9%, Obama is trading at 36.1% and John Edwards is trading at 4.6%....

Clinton is down about 13 percentage points from her all-time high, whereas Obama has risen precipitously -- about a 200 percent increase in a month.

For the Republican nomination, Rudy Giuliani's contract trades at 35.2%, Mitt Romney is trading at 24.4%, John McCain is trading at 10.0%, Ron Paul is at 8.9%, Fred Thompson is trading at half that, and Mike Huckabee has shot up to a little more than 16%.

Are these markets BS? Do they reflect elite opinion? Public opinion? Media opinion? The opinion of those who have time to participate?

Regardless -- the political stock exchange attracts tens of thousands of players each day. Shares of Hillary Clinton, for example, have exchanged hands 74,000 times in the past 24 hours alone.

The questions are easy: do you think that there's a greater than 16.3% chance that Mike Huckabee wins the nomination? If yes, you can bid on a higher value. If no, you can bid on a lower value.