Hillary Clinton's campaign points out two new polls showing Clinton with leads exceeding five points in Iowa. At this point in the cycle, you can pick and choose your polls in the same way you can pick and choose your preferred campaign narrative.

The reality is that Iowa is very hard to poll, and it is very hard to discern a trend. It's probably accurate to say that Iowa is as tied as best we can figure out.

So is Hillary Clinton losing support among women? The Des Moines Register poll shows her down five points in the crosstabs to Obama, but the AP poll shows her up 8 -- more than 33% of all women support her.

Who is right? Note that the AP poll was conducted over two weeks, from Nov. 7 to Nov. 25, and so it incorporates two weeks worth of electoral flux.

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