Bear with me... yes, it shows Mike Huckabee at 39% to Mitt Romney's 17%.

[beat].

But -- Iowa now may be Huckabee's to lose and Romney's to win.

And it's always easier to beat expectations when you're expected to lose.

This poll's sample size is huge -- 1,400+ voters -- the telephone calls were Wednesday and Thursday. The margins of error for the likely caucus goer subgroups are +/- 6%.

The Democratic race: a tie. Though Obama's supporters are more likely to caucus than Clinton's, at this point. Edwards still hovers around the 20 percent mark, and his campaign released its own internal poll today showing a tied race. All three Democratic campaigns agree that the race is essentially tied, but all three believe that their candidate has an organizational edge.

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