Is in its turnout assumptions: only 50% of the sample are Democrats... 40% are independents and 5% are Republicans.

This could mean two things:

1. Independents love Obama and say they're going to caucus for him but won't

2. Independents love Obama and will go to the caucus, register as Democrats, and caucus for Obama

In any event, the poll suggests that independents are asserting themselves in a way that's confounding the pollsters and the establishment.

Note: Obama's internal polling does not show this high a proportion of independents choosing to caucus.

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