It's hard to say, but the maestros of polling, Mark Blumenthal and Prof. Charles Franklin, are beginning to sense something. In New Hampshire. Maybe.
The story "red" tells is that Clinton had a very good third quarter-- good news about her campaign, it's strength, and her good debate performances-- helped raise her New Hampshire standing by five points. Perhaps the same news, or reviews of his failure to make progress, helped sink Obama's support about 4 points during the same third quarter. But since October 1, these patters have changed, with Clinton seeing no further gains and Obama returning to the mid-20s.
Here are Franklin's graphs -- see the "red."
Maybe reality doesn't matter.
ABC's Charlie Gibson was more sure tonight: "Her margin is shrinking."
Perception will drive her numbers down -- and drive her opponents' momentum -- more than reality.
So -- when do we get the next Mark Penn memo explaining why HRC's poll numbers are steady?
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