It's hard to say, but the maestros of polling, Mark Blumenthal and Prof. Charles Franklin, are beginning to sense something. In New Hampshire. Maybe.

Here's Franklin:

The story "red" tells is that Clinton had a very good third quarter-- good news about her campaign, it's strength, and her good debate performances-- helped raise her New Hampshire standing by five points. Perhaps the same news, or reviews of his failure to make progress, helped sink Obama's support about 4 points during the same third quarter. But since October 1, these patters have changed, with Clinton seeing no further gains and Obama returning to the mid-20s.



Here are Franklin's graphs -- see the "red."

1NHDemsSens111207.png


Maybe reality doesn't matter.

ABC's Charlie Gibson was more sure tonight: "Her margin is shrinking."

Perception will drive her numbers down -- and drive her opponents' momentum -- more than reality.

So -- when do we get the next Mark Penn memo explaining why HRC's poll numbers are steady?

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