The people arguing that passing a congressional resolution recognizing the Armenian genocide right at this moment doesn't seem like a particularly sound method of advancing the national interest are, of course, correct. At the same time, though, one ought to recognize that on a realist account these gloom-and-doom predictions of US-Turkish relations in the wake of the resolution are false. Turkey is going to formulate its policy vis-à-vis the United States of America in light of Turkey's interests and not actually radically restructure things in the wake of a symbolic resolution. Things like the strategic partnership with Israel and membership in NATO (and the base-hosting it entails) stand or fall on their own merits and Turkish-US partnership in Iraq is going to be determined by the ability of Turkish and American officials to forge a compromise position on the Kurds that both sides prefer to no compromise at all.
Matthew Yglesias is a former writer and editor at The Atlantic.