Sometimes when your theory doesn't fit the data, you change the theory. Other times, you need to reject the data. For example, I simply don't believe that John Edwards would beat Rudy Giuliani in Kentucky or that Giuliani would beat Barack Obama in Massachusetts.

UPDATE: It should be said, though, that one can't dismiss out of hand the possibility that Giuliani would win Democratic strongholds like New York and New Jersey.

We want to hear what you think about this article. Submit a letter to the editor or write to