The Odds on Chicago
In terms of my prediction that the Bulls will be in the NBA Finals, it's important to distinguish between two claims:
- The Bulls are likely to win the Eastern Conference Championship.
- The Bulls are more likely to win the Eastern Conference Championship than are any other team.
I subscribe to claim (2) not claim (1). People who say Miami will probably beat Chicago in the championship game are right. People who say Detriot will probably beat Chicago in the championship game are right. But I think either of those series would be pretty close -- I don't think the Bulls are enormously worse than either of those teams. I do think the Bulls are enormously more likely to play in the championship game than are either Miami or Detroit, who have to play each other in a second-round tossup. That the Wizards will probably drop to the seventh seed before the regular season ends only makes the Bulls' path easier.