Ballgazing

All the polls seem to indicate substantial wins for the Democrats in a couple of weeks but, to be honest, I just can't bring myself to believe it'll happen. Republicans, for those few cycles when I've really been paying attention, have always won. What's more, I feel like things have always looked good for the Democrats in October. Do I have any real basis for this pessimism? Well, no, on some level I don't. But I do keep coming back to the money gap. The turnout models that are used for midterm elections -- especially for House races -- involve an awful lot of imprecision and guesswork. This years' GOP ground game is, by all accounts, the superior of the two. And when you combine that with boatloads of cash that can be deployed during the final weeks, well, let's just say it continues to make me unconfident.

Be all that as it may, there's a clear psychological advantage to pessimism. If Democrats beat my expectations and do win, then I'll be very happy with that. If they lose, however, that's something I've already resigned myself to and at least I'll be able to get some "I told ya so"s in.