Rasmussen Reports, You Decide
Has anyone noticed that John Kerry's opened up the longest-lasting statistically significant tracking poll lead that we've seen for ages? Or that the Democrats have held a consistent edge in the generic ballot survey for a long time? The second point, really, is the more interesting one. Obviously, to make inferences from generic ballot surveys to control of the House is not really valid, but if I recall correctly the GOP has consistently gotten a 1-3 percent larger share of the House membership than they get of the House vote. The Texas re-redistricting may improve that margin somewhat, but if they're really down nine in generic ballotting I don't see how they can maintain control. Indeed, it seems to me that the Bush campaign's very heavy reliance on the notion that John Kerry simply can't be trusted as a wartime leader may be hurting his downballot adversaries. It's just not an issue that works in House and Senate races, and it leaves the GOP implicitly conceding that the Democrats would be better on other issues.