Via Kaus, Howard Dean's pollster and Karl Rove's consulting firm agree: The electoral college math doesn't look all that great for Obama. Meanwhile, Ambinder asks the big question:

... are the demographics of Obama's coalition so skewed (in terms of previous coalitions) that his national lead will greatly overstate his relative strength in the electoral college? Or is Obama's new coalition so robust as to absorb some of the bleeding of white, working class men in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania and still end up winning?

If it's the former - if Obama ends up winning the popular vote by an even wider margin than Gore did, but losing by a Pennsylvanian whisker in the electoral college - then the 2012 campaign will begin in November, and McCain's presidency will have been dealt a wound from which he'll have an awfully hard time recovering.

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