More evidence, from Jim Geraghty, that John McCain really does have all the luck this year:

I don't want to appear to be saying Super Tuesday is all over — we saw last night, they play the games for a reason - but the winner-take-all/proportional split among the primaries has just sorted out terribly for Romney. He's going to get a decent slice of the vote in McCain's best states and absolutely no delegates to show for it, while McCain gets a few here and a few there in Romney's best states, and California probably splits pretty evenly.

If New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Arizona were proportional, and Colorado and Massachusetts were winner-take-all, the race would probably look quite different.



As it stands, though, unless Romney does much better than expected tomorrow he's staring this scenario in the face:

The table below shows what Romney must do for victory if the likely scenario above plays out on 2/5. Essentially - Romney must win the three remaining winner-take all states AND he must beat McCain by an average margin of 61.45% to 38.54% in the other states. That is how Romney can reach the magic number of 1,191 delegates.


Hugh Hewitt thinks it's possible. I don't.

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