What We're Following This Morning

What caused Metrojet crash?: A spokesman for the Kremlin dismissed as “speculation” reports about what caused the Russian airliner to crash in Egypt’s Sinai peninsula over the weekend. The crash killed 224 people. Philip Hammond, the British foreign secretary, said today there is “significant possibility” the Islamic State was behind the crash. Update: More here

Refugee crisis: Three million more refugees and migrants could arrive in the European Union by the end of 2016, the European Commission says. The number is in the EU’s economic forecast for the fall of 2015. Update: More here

A biography of George H.W. Bush: The former president, in a new book by Jon Meacham, is critical of two of his son’s senior-most advisers. He says Vice President Dick Cheney exerted too much “hard-line” influence within the George W. Bush administration, and calls Donald Rumsfeld, the younger Bush’ s defense secretary, an “arrogant fellow” who “served the president badly.” He also said he sometimes worried about some of his son’s “rhetoric.” The revelations are in today’s New York Times, which got an advance copy of the biography that is being published next week. Update: More here

RIP, Melissa Mathison: The Oscar-nominated writer was perhaps best known for her work on ET: The Extra Terrestrial. Mathison died in Los Angeles on Wednesday. She was 65.