Yesterday, I compared 2009 housing prices to their 2006 baseline. Today, I turn to the change in housing prices. The graph below plots the percentage units change in housing prices between 2006 and 2009 against the 2006 baseline price.
There is a significant relationship between the two. The slope is steep, with a correlation of -0.42 and the R2 of 0.19. Metros above the line have seen drops which are less than would be expected based on national trends, while those below the line have seen drops in excess of the national trend. The numbers in parentheses are the percentage difference between the actual and predicted values.
Under-performers: These are regions where the decline in housing prices has been greater than predicted based on the national trend. The biggest losers are metros in the Sunbelt and Rustbelt. In Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL, for example, housing prices have declined 47.3 percent more than expected based on the national trend. For Akron, OH, the figure is 44.9 percent; Lansing, MI (-39.6 percent); Cleveland, OH (-35.4 percent); Grand Rapids, MI (-33.9 percent); Phoenix, AZ (-31.7 percent); Sarasota, FL (-29.7 percent); Riverside, CA (-29.3 percent); Toledo, OH (-29.3 percent); Palm Bay-Melbourne, FL (-29.1 percent); Sacramento, CA (-28.8 percent); Canton, OH (-28.3 percent); and Las Vegas, NV (-28.2 percent). Miami (-18.56 percent), Atlanta (-18.05 percent), Chicago (-11.72 percent), Los Angeles (-10.07 percent), and Washington, D.C. also performed worse than expected.