Trump’s most recent threats against North Korea came this month after the UN Security Council unanimously voted to tighten international sanctions against Pyongyang. Shortly after that development, news reports said North Korea had succeeded in miniaturizing a nuclear warhead that could be fitted onto an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the U.S. Trump then said “any more threats” by North Korea would be met with “fire and fury,” words he later said weren’t “tough enough,” prompting fears of a military response. He also tweeted the U.S. nuclear arsenal “is now far stronger and more powerful than ever before,” adding he hoped the U.S. would never have to use it. North Korea’s response: a detailed plan to fire an intermediate-range ballistic missile at Guam, the U.S. territory in the Pacific that is home to military bases. When the North did not follow through on that plan, Trump tweeted: “Kim Jong Un of North Korea made a very wise and well reasoned decision. The alternative would have been both catastrophic and unacceptable!”
Trump was noncommittal Tuesday when asked what he was going to do about the latest North Korean test: “We'll see. We’ll see,” was all he said before traveling to Texas to inspect the damage caused by Hurricane Harvey. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said he spoke to Trump for 40 minutes on the issue, saying the two countries were in “total agreement” that the UN Security Council must increase pressure on North Korea. For her part, Trump’s UN ambassador Nikki Haley declared that “something serious has to happen” following the latest missile test, but did not elaborate.
“President Trump and Prime Minister Abe committed to increasing pressure on North Korea, and doing their utmost to convince the international community to do the same,” the White House said in a readout of the call between Trump and Abe, suggesting the U.S. was planning coordinated diplomatic action. But any such action against Pyongyang must include China, a permanent veto-wielding member of the Security Council, which is also North Korea’s main benefactor. Trump has during his presidency said Beijing is doing “nothing” on North Korea, cited increased trade between North Korea and China, and said China’s attempt to persuade Kim to change his behavior “has not worked out.” (China says its influence over Kim is limited, and points to reduced trade between the two countries.)
Nor is Trump the only person in his administration whose rhetoric on North Korea has fluctuated. On July 5, Haley urged Russia and China to vote for tougher sanctions on North Korea, warning: “If you choose not to, we will go our own path.” On July 30, she said there was no point to an emergency Security Council session “if it produces nothing of consequence.” (The U.S. ultimately succeeded in persuading China and Russia to sign on to the sanctions—though it’s unclear what impact those sanctions will actually have on Pyongyang, which has found multiple ways to evade sanctions in the past, as I’ve reported here.) Rex Tillerson, Trump’s secretary of state, had declared the Obama-era policy of “strategic patience” with North Korea over, though the Trump administration’s stated policy of ‘maximum pressure and engagement’ resembles the Obama-era approach. Tillerson, who has spent much of the past month dialing down Trump’s North Korea-related rhetoric, has also said the U.S. is willing to talk to North Korea and is not interested in regime change. On the other hand, in April when Pyongyang tested a medium-range ballistic missile, he said: “The United States has spoken enough about North Korea. We have no further comment.”
By Tuesday, that rhetoric, too, had shifted. In the morning, Tillerson said: “We’ll have more to say about it later.”