The
operation in Sudan, assuming that it was an Israeli one, sent two clear
messages to Tehran: First, that the Israeli intelligence follows Iran's
whereabouts in the region, even deep into Africa. Second, that if the IAF can
safely reach and destroy a target some 1,120 miles from Israel, it can make the
1000 miles journey to Iran's nuclear facilities. To be sure, an attack on
Iran's nuclear facilities would be infinitely more complex than the Yarmouk
operation. But it can be interpreted as a possible rehearsal for a long
distance strike similar to one that would be required to attack on Iran.
Operation Pillar of Cloud is not
aimed at destroying the Hamas regime in Gaza, but rather at paralyzing it
militarily. Aside from the immediate respite it would provide southern Israel
from rocket fire, this would also ensure that Hamas and Islamic Jihad stay out
of the conflict in case Israel strikes Iran. It undermined Hamas's command
structure by starting its operation this month with the assassination Ahmad
Jabari, chief of Hamas's armed forces. Shortly after, the IAF destroyed most of
Hamas' Fajr missiles. With both the Yarmouk facility and most of the Fajr
missiles eliminated, Israel has severely limited the capability of Hamas and
the Islamic Jihad to fire beyond southern Israel and threaten high population
concentrations around Tel Aviv.
Regardless of the damage Israel
inflicts on Hamas, the movement's leaders will portray their resilience as a
victory. But it will take Hamas and Islamic Jihad some time to regroup and
restock their long-range missiles inventory, making it almost impossible for
them to engage in a second round of intense fire in the near future. Though
this may seem like a short- or medium-term achievement for Israel, it does
provide important breathing room for an imminent operation against Iran.
Beyond neutralizing Hamas, the
current operation is helpful in other ways in preparing for an Iran attack. If
Israel were to attack Iran, the likelihood of a direct Iranian or a combined
Iranian-Hezbollah response against Israeli cities is high. The heavy exchange
of fire with Gaza is an excellent opportunity for the Israeli authorities to
examine the preparedness of its home front, emergency infrastructure, defensive
military capabilities, and Hezbollah's response. Immediately after the Thursday
attack near Tel Aviv, many Israelis have begun preparing their shelters in case
the fight escalates.
Psychologically, the longer the
fire continues, the broader the media coverage will be, the more alert the
Israeli public becomes. A responsive public, who closely follows the
instructions of the home front authorities, is an utmost important element in
minimizing the number of potential victims in case of an Iranian
strike. Militarily, a large scale operation enables the Israeli
forces to examine the coordination between the different units as well as the
capabilities of its air defense system, the Iron Dome. And, as of now, aside
from a declaration of support to Hamas, Hezbollah has refrained from joining
the fray. While it is difficult to imagine that Israel launched its current
offensive primarily to gauge these factors as a test-run for an attack on Iran,
it certainly provides important ancillary benefits toward that end.
