After decades of partnership, is Cairo serving us with divorce papers?
Hosni Mubarak and Barack Obama in the White House in 2010 / AP
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Egypt's former ambassador to the United States, Nabil Fahmy, once remarked that the U.S.-Egypt relationship was like "a mature marriage." It seems that with the trial of 19 Americans and 16 Egyptians and 8 others affiliated with the National Democratic Institute and International Republican Institute, the Egyptians are serving divorce papers. The last four decades have had many highs and quite a few lows, but now it is time to move on. What was once a strategic relationship built on the firm geo-strategic foundations of containing Soviet influence in the Middle East, forging peace between Arabs and Israelis, and helping to ensure the stability of the region is now an unhealthy codependency with no strategic rationale or direction.
The January 25th uprising was bound to alter U.S.-Egypt relations in fundamental ways if only because public sentiment matters more in the new Egypt and Washington is far from popular. Yet events of the last few weeks suggest that the trajectory of the relationship is in steeper decline than anyone expected. The NGO case is wrapped up in layers of resentment relating to Egypt's history of foreign domination, Egyptian nationalism, and Washington's determination to spend part of its aid package on programs that support democratic change. In the psycho-drama that bilateral relations have become, both the Egyptians and Americans want U.S. assistance to continue to flow, but for all the wrong reasons. The aid is good for Egypt's leaders because it provides them with an opportunity to position themselves as good nationalists even though they have been feeding at the trough of international aid for many years. For Washington, the aid is the only leverage the United States has to try to influence Egyptian behavior and even though it doesn't seem to work, lawmakers and officials are loath to give it up.