The U.S. faces a rapidly changing region from Tripoli to Jerusalem
Israeli Defense Minister Barak visits Israeli officers at rocket shield battery in Ashkelon / Reuters
How quickly the ground has shifted in the Middle East. The apparent
fall of Tripoli suggests that the Gaddafi regime will not last long, and
this must send shivers down the spine of the cousins who run the Assad
mafia in Damascus. For once Gaddafi is gone all attention will turn to
the remaining Arab despotism, and the opposition to Assad will grow in
energy and confidence. Now is the time to turn up the pressure and make
Assad fall sooner rather than later, for every additional week means
scores more Syrians murdered in the streets of the country. Then
attention will have to turn to the next act: the one in which we see, in
Tunisia and Egypt, in Libya and Syria, if decent, stable, democratic
governments can be built. It now looks as if the Arab Spring was the
lead-in to a hot summer for the remaining tyrants. The issue we all face
for the winter is what the United States can do to help avoid chaos or
repression in those countries as they seek to build new political
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The Eagle Has Landed...In Sinai
Meanwhile it is becoming a hot summer for Israel as well. The economic and social protests of the last month in that country have been pushed aside by a new conflict with Hamas. The largest terrorist attack in months took place last week near Eilat, killing seven and wounded twenty-five. That attack appears to have emerged from Sinai, which is fast coming loose from Egyptian control and falling under that of Bedouin criminal gangs and Palestinian terrorists. Whether the Egyptian military has the power and strength to re-assert control of Sinai seems to me very doubtful, which means Israel will have to build a security fence there much like the one it has built to stop Palestinian terrorism from the West Bank.
Moreover, since "Operation Cast Lead" in late 2008 and early 2009 Hamas has limited attacks on Israel by its own forces and rival gangs in Gaza. No more; now Hamas and its partners have announced the truce is over and sent dozens of rockets into Israel in the last few days.
All of that puts the PLO claim that it is ready for statehood in a different light, for it reminds us that Ramallah has no control over events in Gaza--even including making war on Israel, which these rocket and mortar attacks clearly are. It renders any U.N. vote on Palestinian statehood even more obviously unreal and unhelpful, for the greater problem Palestinians suffer is that half their populace is under the domination of an Islamic terrorist group.