Others disagree. A U.S. diplomatic cable
made public by WikiLeaks claimed Cuba's economy was struggling and could
be "insolvent" by 2011. Written by a U.S. diplomat in Havana after a
February 2010 breakfast with representatives from five of Cuba's largest
trading partners, the cable suggested
the Cuban government would face an economic collapse without Venezuelan
subsidies. The dire predictions were written before Raúl Castro
announced this spring's reforms, but many, including Paul Hare, the UK
ambassador to Cuba from 2001 to 2004, are worried that the cable might
still be a herald of things to come.
"Chávez has described Fidel
Castro as his 'father,'" Hare told me. "Venezuelan support to Cuba is
not a treaty between sovereign nations, but an understanding reached
between two political soul mates -- the equivalent of a secret
fraternity that is going to be difficult, if not impossible to replace."
A frightening repercussion of this personal relationship is that no
one, "apart from a very few people close to the Castros and Chávez knows
the [exact] size of Venezuelan subsidies."
If Chávez loses
power, Hare said, "It would be hard for the Chavista movement to remain
cohesive, even if his brother Adan steps in. Chávez has the personality
and track record of a populist leader -- there is no one who can readily
inherit that mantle." When I called Carlos Blanco, former Venezuelan
President of the Commission for State Reform, in Caracas, he said,
"Chávez didn't prepare a second layer of leaders within his own
movement, he has no clear successors. If there is any change, any reason
Chávez cannot continue, a new relationship with Cuba would have to be
agreed on."
In a world without Chávez, Cuba will still need a
sponsor. Its best hope may be to work out a preferential relationship
with Iran, already a partner in smaller trade agreements. But given the
power of the personal relationship between Chávez and Castro, any such
agreements would likely be less favorable than the current arrangements
with Venezuela. If the Spanish company Repsol's offshore drilling results in
2011 are productive, other non-Venezuelan companies (such as the
National Iranian Oil Company) might be interested in helping Cuba
develop offshore oil fields. But no foreign business can own majority control in any Cuban joint venture, which may discourage non-Chavista investors.
One
interesting result of all this is that nervousness over the future of
Venezuelan support will likely encourage Cuba's Old Guard to go along
with Raúl's economic reforms, and Cuba's economy may begin to open more
quickly. U.S. policymakers are considering ending the U.S. trade
embargo, which would bolster Cuba's private sector and remove much of
Cuba's need for an Iranian benefactor. Congress has long been divided on
the embargo. Some, like Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (the House
Foreign Affairs Committee chairwoman, and a Florida Republican of
Cuban-American heritage) claim,
"It is reprehensible that the administration would continue to make it a
priority to advance ... exchanges with Cuba." Others, like former
Republican Senator Chuck Hagel believe blocking exports, "Does nothing to harm governments and the government leaders with which we disagree."