Syria's economy has come under such incredible duress
in recent weeks that financial analysts say the government could run
out of money entirely. Syria is struggling due to a combination of
international sanctions, drying-up foreign investment, a devastated
tourism industry (hotels in Aleppo and Damascus are empty at a time of
year when they're usually pumping much-needed money into the economy),
and Assad's costly civil service pay raises made in a last ditch effort
to assuage protesters. This sudden and severe economic downturn will
bring real pain to the Syrian people, but it will exacerbate protests,
and ultimately limit Assad's ability to pay military and security
forces.
This economic dynamic played a major role in the fall of
Côte d'Ivoire illegitimate president Laurent Gbagbo earlier this year.
Crippling sanctions made it impossible for him to pay all but the most
loyal forces, and his control over the country dissipated within a few
weeks. He retained firm control only over his own compound in the
country's capital. However, this alone was not enough to unseat him from
power. It ultimately took several frontal assaults by opposition
militias -- backed by French special forces troops -- to overrun the
compound and finally end Gbago's rule.
Assad's military is stretched increasingly thing, with troops recently deploying
to a fourth border, in the east near Iraq. Syria is not an especially
large country, but it is heavily urban. Its 22 million residents --
about four times as many as in Libya -- are packed twice as densely as
Yemen's 23 million. As the military attempts to lay siege to one town
after another, it must send less and less forces to each new urban
uprising, and will thus be less able to respond. When Syrian refugees
recently fled by the thousands from the town of Jisr al-Shoughour into
Turkey, many carried reports that protesters had burned out security
buildings in a fight to hold their city. Eventually, there may be a town
in revolt that Assad simply lacks the forces to put down, and that
would be the beginning of the end of his grip on the country.
Syria's
foreign policy, a tool Assad has long used to stay in power, may also
be faltering. The country's relationship with northern neighbor and
crucial ally Turkey is at near-total collapse,
depriving Syria of its richest and most important ally. The response
from Iran -- Syria's second-most important ally -- is still uncertain.
Protesters have begun burning
Iranian flags, understanding how important the eastern neighbor is in
bolstering Assad's rule (impossible-to-verify reports suggest Iranian
security forces are assisting in the crackdown; whether or not they're
true, they are believed within Syria). Iran now faces a dilemma between
offering even greater aid to Assad in a big to keep him in power, or
scaling down their involvement so as not to risk a popular backlash, as
they did in Iraq once it appeared major Shia militias might turn against
them.