[JF Note: The guests who have appeared here over the past two months have generally not engaged the breaking news of the moment. I think that's mainly because each has used the time to explore his or her own special topic or perspective, which is what I asked people to do. Also, there may be some deference or hesitation about using a guest platform to make direct political arguments. The post below, by Piero Garau, is a worthy exception. He is Italian, and he has extensive experience living and working throughout Africa. His comments below parallel my own post a few hours ago -- which he hadn't seen when he submitted these views.]
By Piero Garau
But after 17 February 2011, things changed radically. All of a sudden, it appeared that he could rapidly be swept away by huge Libyan crowds that had materialized out of nowhere. This was worrying, because it was not easy to imagine who exactly would end up taking over the country, its oil and gas, the revenues from its oil and gas, and more importantly, the weight that could be pulled with the revenues from its oil and gas. But the wave of enthusiasm that the media had spread about the New Arab Awakening was simply overpowering.
Unfortunately, Libya did not have a powerful and US-dependent army to count on to calm down enthusiasm and excesses once the dust settled down. Nevertheless, the only course of action was to pretend that once the hateful dictator was removed, Libya, too, would find its own Road to Democracy. The party line was clear: condemn the dictator, show sympathy to the uprising, but otherwise do nothing at all, urgently.
Things, however, started to get really worrying once it became clear that, against all odds, Qaddafi had mounted a successful counterinsurgency campaign and stood a very good chance of taking full control of the country once again. We were thus faced by two equally unpalatable scenarios. First scenario: the insurgents manage to get rid of the dictator after all, but are likely to feel rather angry at Qaddafi's former friends who had not lifted a finger to help. And then, who could save us from the prospect of an Al- Chavez (see picture), a new strongman with no favours to return to the West?
Second scenario: Qaddafi squashes the insurgents. See first scenario: we would have to deal with the one we had condemned as an international criminal. Not a good prospect.
So, the course of action had to be taken to follow the adventurous route of a confused and politically troubled leader, Nicolas Sarkozy. Just before the end of the last quarter, a resolution was passed at the security council and a new war could start.
The rest we know. For the time being, we have an Iraq Lite: removal of the hateful dictator with other means than diplomacy, but this time with no ground troops - just hell from the air. At this very moment, the media are gloating in portraying and describing the feats of Mirages, Tomahawks, Tornadoes. What we don't know is what will emerge out of this mess.
Piero Garau is an Italian architect and urbanist who worked with the UN and taught at the University of Rome. Illustration above by Piero Garau for Poerio Press.