I know, I know, it's hard to keep up with these competing estimates. The latest one is from Israeli military intelligence:
Iran will be able to achieve a nuclear bomb within one or two years, the incoming head of Israel's Military Intelligence said Tuesday, but added that such a move would depend on the will of the Tehran leadership.
"The question is not when Iran will have the bomb. The question is how long it will take for an Iranian leader to decide to have the centrifuges start enriching at 90 percent," Brigadier-General Aviv Kochavi told a meeting of the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee.
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