A Faulty Premise on Iran?

A reader dissents:

I'd like, most respectfully, to point out that the key premise of your most recent post seems a bit irrational.  You suggest that successful testing of a nuclear device by Iran would spur chaotic nuclear proliferation.  You go on to mention the Saudis, Turks, Egyptians, and Algerians.
 
Surely Israel is viewed an even greater threat and more fundamental adversary by these countries than Iran.  Yet Israel has had the bomb for decades!  Why is it that Iranian success would prompt these countries to develop weapons when Israel's long-standing possession of nuclear arms has not?
 
The premise suffers from an additional weakness -- it assumes that Iran willl successfully develop a nuclear device some time in the near future.  Since when did Iran become such a scientific powerhouse?  What is known of the Iranian nuclear program suggests that they are years away from being able to obtain fissile materials in sufficient quantities -- and there are very significant technical hurdles to be leapt in terms of the construction of a weapon, even when enough plutonium is on hand.  Despite innuendo, I'm not aware of any credible report of an Iranian program to build nuclear weapons.  Your argument ought to recognize the high level of uncertainty regarding successful nuclear weapons development by Iran.