Picking future stars is hard to do. In sports, as in entertainment, it's generally said of scouts that "nobody knows anything." That is, even with reams of research and hours of video, it's hard for teams to predict which draftee will turn out to be an extraordinary talent and who will turn out to be a bust.
But the NFL (which continues its draft today) does seem *particularly* bad predicting future stars. A new football draft study from the Worcester Polytechnic Institute found there has historically been more value among second-round picks than first-rounders. "The analysis of the past 13 seasons shows that second-rounders provide 70 percent of the production of first-round picks but at just 40 percent of the salary," ESPN reported.
To add some anecdotal color, when you look at today's best football players, their draft positions are utterly random. Look at the best quarterbacks. Peyton Manning was a first overall pick, while Aaron Rodgers was a late first-rounder, Drew Brees was the 32nd pick, and Tom Brady was famously a 6th rounder. Or consider the best running backs. Adrian Peterson was the top-rated in his class, but Arian Foster ranked 24th, and breakout star Alfred Morris wasn't drafted until the 6th round.