There is a lot of talk about the various swing groups--suburban white women, Appalachian white people, Jewish white people, working class white people, Southwest brown people etc. I actually expect most of those cats to rally to Obama's side. But just like in the primary, one of the most decisive demographic group in this election will be black folks down South--particularly black people in Georgia, North Carolina and maybe Florida. At this moment, Obama is running neck and neck with McCain in Georgia and within four points in North Carolina.
I don't think that polls this early don't mean much, except this--all this talk from the primaries about what Obama can and can't do is pretty much out the window. The goes for (as I've called) the varying tribes of white people, and for the varying tribes of us. I think an Obama win, while winning some of the states that Dems have traditionally lost would say so much about where we are, racially, in this country. As for the "us," the Southern Tribes really need to come through on this one. With significant numbers, we may not win, but we can McCain sweat bullets. Should they lose North Carolina and Georgia, the math gets really tough. Some of you walked through night-sticks and police dogs for a chance to alter the world. We're not asking you to do that again. Just walk into the voting booth. Do that and some things--not everything--will change.