Nate Silver draws no firm conclusions. Bernstein imagines that it changes depending on circumstance:

It's not that union members previously were in favor of GOP plans about unions and have now changed their minds; what's almost certainly happening is that people who may previously have thought of themselves primarily as outstaters envious of Madison, or as right-to-lifers, or as any one of their other possible political identities, are now thinking of themselves as primarily union members. And, of course, as union members they oppose attacks on unions.

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