Drezner thinks the tea party is on the way out, and incoherent, especially with regard to foreign policy:
The simplest fact about the Tea Party is that, by and large, they don't care about foreign policy. The only issue areas where I suspect the Tea Party will really matter going forward are in the policies that cater to both wing's inherent American nationalism -- namely, immigration and anti-Muslim hysteria concerns. Beyond that, however, I suspect that ten years from now we'll look back at the Tea Party movement the same way we now look [at] Ross Perot's Reform Party -- a brief, interesting but in the end unstable collection of political oddities.
I'm not so sure. Does Dan think the Republican tea-party base is really that supportive of the war in Afghanistan? Or of intervening in Libya? It's in flux, I think. Huckabee has openly questioned the war in Afghanistan; Gary Johnson dislikes it; Ron Paul will run again. The campaign could even open an important debate about foreign policy. Yes, I know foreign policy isn't what truly animates the Tea Party; and yes, I suspect that "No Apology" grandstanding in defense of America and appeals to "strength" will probably dominate the debate. But what about defense spending? And nation-building? We'll see, won't we?