In Recognition Of Uncertainty

Andrew Gelman rejects overconfidence in punditry:

[O]f course it makes sense that different people have different views about foreign policy. What stuns me (although I know it shouldn't anymore) is that these pundits seem so clueless, so unaware that not everyone agrees with their premises. If Prell and Hitchens could just sit in a room for a few minutes together, talk about how much they hate Obama, and then discuss the Middle East, maybe they'd each realize, just a little bit, that their views are not so universally accepted. Prell would learn that at least one wholesome Obama-hater does not think that Mubarak is such a good [long-term] deal for the Middle East, and Hitchens would learn that you don't have to be a European-style softie to be skeptical of faraway regime changes.