Chait thinks not:
Romney has caught himself on the wrong side of the emotional hot button issue for the Republican Party. What's more, he's there all by himself. There is no Republican split on this issue. No Republicans voted for the Affordable Care Act. Within the party the bill is viewed, without significant dissent, as the greatest assault on freedom in memory, and possibly ever. Meanwhile, Romney's response is pathetic and weak. On top of all that, the flip-flops he had to undergo to run for president the last time around leave him in no position to flip flop again.
Nate Silver had a rosier view of Romney's chances. I share Chait's skepticism. Romney sure looks the part and sounds the part and has the resume ... and yet his translucent phoniness trumps everything. He also seems to me to be a bad politician: so obvious and relentless in his pandering it backfires. I don't begrudge the Christianists' suspicion of him (and not on sectarian grounds). And it's hard to beat Crowley on his Iowa maneuvering.
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